Demonstrate A Concept: False Consensus Effect

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdt1h8reVHA

I chose to demonstrate the false consensus effect by asking a few of my friends how they feel about several social issues and how many people they would estimate agree with them. Before I explain the false consensus effect and how this video is an example, let me first summarize the content of the film clip:

1st Question Asked: Are you pro-choice?

Respondent: Chloe
Answer: Yes
Estimate % pro-choice: 65-75%


Respondent: Rachel
Answer: No
Estimate % pro-choice: 35%


Respondent: Katie
Answer: Yes
Estimate % pro-choice: 65%


Respondent: Nina
Answer: No
Estimate % pro-choice: 20%


2nd Question Asked: Do you believe in God?


Respondent: Nina
Answer: Yes
Estimate % believe: 90%


Respondent: Katie
Answer: Yes
Estimate % believe: 65%


Respondent: Chloe'
Answer: Yes
Estimate % believe: 65%


Respondent: Rachel
Answer: Yes
Estimate % believe: 85%


3rd Question Asked: Do you agree with the death penalty?


Respondent: Rachel
Answer: No
Estimate % agree: 30%


Respondent: Chloe'
Answer: Yes
Estimate % agree: 70%


Respondent: Katie
Answer: Yes
Estimate % agree: 68%


Respondent: Nina
Answer: No
Estimate % agree: 25%


(Krueger, 2000)


The false-consensus effect is one of the two problems that can occur when using the availability heuristic. It describes the human tendency to overestimate how many people have the same attrbutes, opinions, and behaviors (Kruger, 1998; Ross, Greene, & House, 1977). When it comes to opinions on social issues such as abortion, God, and the death penalty, the false consensus occurs when people who support abortion estimate than many others also support abortion, as well as when people who do not support the death penalty estimate that many others do not support the death penalty. The questions I asked in the video clip demonstrate this concept well. As Chloe' and Katie were pro-choice and in support of the death penalty, they predicted that the majority of the US population is also pro-choice and in support of the death penalty. In contrast, Nina and Rachel, who were not pro-choice and not in support of the death penalty, predicted that the minority of the US population is pro-choice and in support of the death penalty (meaning that they estimated that the majority of the population held beliefs similar to their own). The false consensus effect is an interesting phenomenon and is quite easily demonstrated, as seen by this example.



Krueger, J. (1998). On the perception of social consensus. Advances in Experimental and Social Psychology, 30, 163-240.

Krueger, J. (2000). The projective perception of the social world: A building block of social comparison processes. In J. Suls & L. Wheller (Eds.), Handbook of social comparison: Theory and research (pp. 323-351). New York: Plenum/Kluwer.

Ross, L., Greene, D., & House, P. (1977). The false consensus phenomenon: An attributional bias in self-perception and social-perception processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13, 279-301.